Factless Soothsayers: Former Representative Sandack, the I.P.I. & Bruce Rauner (& ReBoot Illinois)
My neighbors and their “millennial” children living in the
basement are leaving Illinois for Indiana.
They’ve had enough, they tell me.
“The taxes, Madigan, the Obamas…”
They’ll be happier there and better off, they tell me over
an afternoon beer. And almost an hour
closer to their slip in Grand Haven where they spend much of their time
sailing.
They’re recently retired (and so are their children –
not-so-recently).
So, one more Illinois resident family leaves and becomes
another statistic in the ongoing argument that Illinoisans are fleeing the
state of Illinois in Biblical proportions.
Look back and you might turn into salt?
I often drive on the Southside expressways, so I commonly
see the signs welcoming all of us to Indiana, and the puffed-up promises of a
better life in a state where the median income is 31st as contrasted
to Illinois’ 18th position according to U.S. Census’s Bureau
reports. But we’ve all learned it is
appearances that are dressed as reality that humans eagerly swallow in American
politics.
I’ve heard first-term governor Rauner’s constant pitches
that we are “losin’ people to our neighborin’ states.”
Are we? Have we
been? I’ve wondered…
Rauner echoes the arguments of his close allies in the
Illinois Policy Institute, and
characters like former Representative Ron Sandack (81st
District) who all follow this line of argument like a phalanx of myrmidons.
“The wealthy will leave, I tell ya! And then, we’ll be left to pay the increased
taxes,” former Representative Sandack urged at a recent meeting I attended when
he was asked about a graduated tax policy.
For former Representative Sandack and many others like our
governor, any of their pet issues are causing
people’s mass exodus to other places: taxation, pension issues,
workman’s comp., union power, local rule, etc.
Yet, new evidence and research from Natalie Davila, Mike
Klemens, Robert Ross, and Lyman Stone from KDM Consulting notes quite the
opposite of the argumentative positions of the current governor, the I.P.I.,
and former Representative Ron Sandack.
Indeed, in trying to ascertain whether or not there was some
accuracy in the governor’s and his backers’ positions about Illinois citizens’
out-migration, KDM reviewed the numbers carefully.
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| "People are leaving' - people tell me…" |
Because of the recently available records of tax information
and census information from earlier periods in the previous century, the
researchers were able to crunch the numbers of people leaving, the income
strata of those who did, and the in-migration to Illinois of those before not
calculated in these glass-half-empty positions by the governor and friends.
Significant findings:
1.
Net
out-migration for Illinois is not new.
The state has seen net out-migration every year but one since 1925.
2.
Illinois
net-migration is overstated if international migration is ignored. Otherwise migrants from other countries are
not counted when they move to Illinois, but are counted when they move out of
Illinois to other parts of the country.
Including international migration reduces net migration out of Illinois
by one-third.
3.
Both
in-migration and out-migration are tied to the economic cycle. People move when times are good and sit tight
when they are bad. The 2011 income tax
rate increases came as Illinois was moving out of a recession, and migration
could have been expected to increase.
4.
Many
migrants don’t move far. Illinois’
largest out-migration is to Indiana.
Indiana’s and Wisconsin’s largest out-migration is to Illinois.
5.
Illinois
is a big state in terms of population so out-migration in absolute numbers is
large. However, a larger percentage of
both Indian’s and Wisconsin’s population moves to Illinois than vice versa.
6.
Net
out-migration from Illinois to Indiana and Wisconsin has declined.
7.
Illinois
net out-migration rates fell in 2011, the first year of the income tax
increase, but increased significantly in 2014.
I’ve bolded these findings because they are SO opposite the constant harangue by
Rauner, the I.P.I. or former Rep. Sandack.
This new research report indicates that all the arm
flailing, screaming, and eye-bulging philippic by Representative Ronald Sandack may be just so much
delirium aimed at the masses. Mass
hysteria, if you will.
From Sandack’s former website:
“The data reflects a
continuation of a trend of out-migration from Illinois that has lasted more
than a decade. Between 1995 and 2009, the state lost on a net basis more than
806,000 people to out-migration.
When people leave, they take
their income and their talent with them. In 2009 alone, Illinois lost residents
who took with them a net of $1.5 billion in taxable income. From 1995 to 2009,
Illinois lost out on a net of $26 billion in taxable income to out-migration…”
Someone’s wrong.
And the Illinois Policy Institute, always willing to be one
more serviceable haruspex when it comes to promising immediate catastrophe for
all Illinois’’ citizens unless they stampede to the far right:
“Illinois residents are fleeing the state. When people leave,
they take their purchasing power, entrepreneurial activity and taxable income
with them. For more than 15 years, residents have left Illinois at a rate of
one person every 10 minutes.”
Imagine
Indiana’s and Wisconsin’s to Illinois? I
suggest you read the KDM report. I
suggest former Representative Sandack read it, too. In addition, the Reboot Illinois people, have
today released a poll indicating over 50% of people under the age of 35 want to
get somewhere else. I appreciate that
weather ranks right up there with taxes as a reason to get out of here –
especially as we head into the colder months. The poll questions seem a bit
contrived, and making certainty out of imagined opportunity lacks reliability
to me, but you should probably look that over too, if you haven’t already.
Illinois
has enough problems and issues. We all
of us – even state workers – owe the state $billions for money that was
diverted and used in order to provide every citizen with benefits and services
on the backs of those who worked for us.
The politicians in Illinois’ General Assembly will try to avoid facing
this issue with every breath they have left.
And Rauner, the I.P.I. and Sandack-like characters will try to find some
way, any way, to blame a select group for the decades of mismanagement rather
than find an honest solution.
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