Missing the 200 Pound Gorilla in the Room (The ramp?... What Ramp?... I don’t see any
ramp…)
Selective
Attention: noun. In psychology, a singular focus for
information or answers at the expense of other alternatives which may be
available. In short, thinking only
inside the box without other consideration; a particularly dangerous form of
group-think.
In a famous study of the 1970’s, Ulrich Neisser, a professor of
cognitive psychology at Harvard, tested the results of singular concentration
on perception that has real implications for what we see in Springfield these
days.
First, he videotaped some students passing a basketball back and
forth on an open court and differentiated them by using shirts of white or a
darker color. He asked those watching
the video to count the number of passes between the players wearing white for a
specified period of time. During the
video, he inserted images of a woman with an umbrella. Later on, the vast majority of the subjects
who watched the video never reported seeing any woman with an umbrella in the
room.
Lately, professors Christopher Chabris and Dan Simons decided to try
it again, but this time adding a 200-pound gorilla that, in one case, remained
on the court for nearly ten seconds before ambling off screen through the moving
basketball passers. Results? Once again, half of the people watching the
video never saw the gorilla.
You can see the interview and video at BigThink (http://bigthink.com/ideas/20583 ).
The frightening implications of selective attention are everywhere
–the kid texting while driving next to you or the Representative in Springfield
looking at the latest bills for “pension reform.” And, of course, you and I both know the
gorilla in this case is the crazy, ascending ramp (PA 88-0593)designed to repay
the money stolen from public sector pension funds over nearly a half
century.
Instead of addressing the problem of the 1995 Ramp, the legislature
has decided to ignore the gorilla and construct an answer by cutting benefits. Governor Quinn is their best cheerleader.
Proposed bill HB6258 (Rep. Nekritz, Sen. Biss) severely diminishes
promised cost-of-living adjustments, increases retirement ages, escalates
employee contributions to highest in the land, caps eventual pensionable
salaries, and pushes new employees into a cash balance plan (instead of a
pension). Nothing about the Ramp. Nothing about the nearly $100 billion owed.
Proposed fall-back SB1 (Sen Cullerton) requires all active and retired members to
make choices: Either accept a reduced cost of living adjustment and maintain
access to the state’s health insurance program for retired teachers, or keep
the current TRS COLA and lose access to state supported health insurance in
retirement. Nothing about the Ramp. Nothing about the nearly $100 billion owed.
As Ralph
Matire has been warning for years now, “Purportedly to rectify the problem,
Public Act 88-0593 was passed in 1995. Known as the "Pension Ramp,"
it established a repayment schedule to get the pension systems 90 percent
funded by 2045.
“Unfortunately
the Pension Ramp was fundamentally flawed, because it continued the practice of
borrowing against pension contributions to fund services for 15 more years,
effectively tripling total pension debt, and was so backloaded that the
installments of debt to be repaid in out years jumped at annual rates that were
unrealistic and unaffordable.
“For
instance last year in FY2012, the state's pension contribution was $4.1
billion, of which only $1.6 billion was the cost of funding benefits, while
more than half, $2.5 billion, was repayment of debt. In FY2013 the contribution
jumps by 23 percent to $5.1 billion — with all the increase being debt
repayment under the goofy Pension Ramp”(http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20120703/discuss/707039979/)
.
The
problem is not pension benefits, no matter how many times Governor Quinn links
the regular payment (which is minor) with what the state owes the pension
funds. That’s the gorilla. That’s what they choose not to see.
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